Quantum Computers: What We Need and What We Have
This chart shows two things: (1) the Achieved series in blue gives what size quantum programs have been successfully run and (2) the Estimated series shows what size programs would be needed for advantage across different domains. Here we plot the size of a quantum program by the number of qubits and number of quantum operations.
The shaded blue region indicates the qubit widths that can be simulated by state vector methods, up to about 50 qubits. This plot does not include clock speed, which is another important parameter to consider. Resource estimates are based on applications where performance can be proved. This is a high bar. Estimates may be pessimistic as many heuristics need to be developed in practice. Estimates may be optimistic as they haven't been run and so could have mistakes!
If you have other data you would like to see added to this chart please either make a pull-request on Metriq to the progress chart CSV file directly or email metriq@unitary.fund.
Below is a more in-depth table of relevant results, from which key representative points have been selected to display on the chart above.
To have new data point additions of your own considered for inclusion in the chart, please open a pull request on GitHub against the chart data file.
| Task | Submission | Date | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum computational chemistry (QCC) | QREChem: Quantum Resource Estimation Software for Chemistry Applications | 2024-04-25 | T-count | 1e+15 |
| Quantum computational chemistry (QCC) | QREChem: Quantum Resource Estimation Software for Chemistry Applications | 2024-04-25 | T-count | 10000000 |
| Ca3Co2O6 | Applications and resource estimates for open system simulation on a quantum computer | 2024-06-10 | Toffoli count | 1.9e+23 |
| Metal-Insulator Transition | Applications and resource estimates for open system simulation on a quantum computer | 2024-06-10 | Toffoli count | 270000000000000 |
| Quantum computational chemistry (QCC) | Quantifying fault tolerant simulation of strongly correlated systems using the Fermi-Hubbard model | 2024-06-10 | Toffoli count | 3000000 |
| Ubiquitin | Prospects for NMR Spectral Prediction on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers | 2024-06-13 | Toffoli count | 34500000000000 |
| Semaglutide | Prospects for NMR Spectral Prediction on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers | 2024-06-13 | Toffoli count | 164000000000000 |
| Maitotoxin | Prospects for NMR Spectral Prediction on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers | 2024-06-13 | Toffoli count | 17700000000000 |
| α-Conotoxin | Prospects for NMR Spectral Prediction on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers | 2024-06-13 | Toffoli count | 511000000000 |
| Bacitracin | Prospects for NMR Spectral Prediction on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers | 2024-06-13 | Toffoli count | 579000000000 |
